Government Weather and Climate Science is a Proven Disaster.
Barack Obama’s draconian plan to stop climate change is based on the certainty of forecasts of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) under the control of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It is parroted by all national weather agencies as WMO members. This, despite the exposed corruption, manipulated science, and failed predictions (projections).
A few weeks before Obama’s announcement, on March 18 in Exeter, England, another WMO member, the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO), held a meeting to discuss the unusual weather and try and understand the
“disappointing UK weather over recent years.”
In fact, the need for the meeting and the programme indicates how little they know about weather and climate. What is really disappointing for them is the complete failure of their forecasting. They need an excuse for failure, but in doing so expose their incompetence.
Their total failure over decades could only happen in government or government sponsored industry. In the natural world, that advocates of more government generally favor, elimination would have occurred. Typical of government, failures and redundancies are perpetuated as people preserve their jobs. Give any problem to government and they will create structures that quickly work on sustaining themselves rather than achieving resolution. Can you think of any non-government agency that could be wrong 13 out of 14 years as the UKMO was and yet maintain their jobs or business?
The title of the meeting says “unusual weather”, but it is not unusual at all in the short or long term. In a study of weather variable for 14 years at a southern UK location Neil Catto shows nothing unusual. Here are the maximum and minimum temperature records, but all the others are similar.
On a longer scale the 354 years Central England Temperature (CET) shows the slight warming and cooling trends since the nadir of the Little Ice Age, but no dramatic or unusual patterns, just natural variability.
It also shows the Sunspot Cycle 24 and 25 predictions that correlate with previous cool periods and anticipated cooling in the immediate future. Indeed, the cooling since 1998 is part of that trend an expected to continue. The change in trend caused a change in terminology from Global Warming to Climate Change, a practice enjoined by the UKMO.
Failure to include just this solar relationship alone in their models is one reason the IPCC and national models fail. Another is they assume an increase in CO2 causes a temperature increase when the opposite occurs in every single record we have. Further evidence online casino of their failure is the success of Piers Corbyn’s forecasts such that it was proposed in Parliament they close the weather office and contract his services.
Ironically, a former employee of the UK weather office Hubert Lamb left that agency to set up the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia because he could not get support for his attempt to improve forecasting by understanding past weather patterns. He explained in his autobiography,
“…it was clear that the first and greatest need was to establish the facts of the past record of the natural climate in times before any side effects of human activities could well be important.”
His successor, Tom Wigley, ignored that and pursued evidence of a human cause of warming and climate change. Members of the CRU he hired became central in the IPCC and also infamous after their corruptive behaviour was exposed by leaked emails.
There is an old comment that,
“the unusual weather is more unusual than usual.”
It is implied in the reason for the UKMO meeting and further evidence of their ignorance of weather and climate. If you disagree, consider the level of inaccuracy of their forecasts. In fact, the pattern of weather is perfectly normal and well within natural variability. The mechanism is also reasonably well understood and has been in the literature for at least 50 years.
The boundary between the cold polar air and the warm tropical air is called the Polar Front. It is a very distinct temperature boundary traditionally measured by the Zonal Index – the temperature difference between two latitudes. This difference translate to pressure difference, which determines wind speed. As a result a very strong wind, technically called the Circumpolar Vortex, but more commonly called the Jet Stream blows. This wind was discovered in the 1940s and wave patterns in the wind delineated by Carl Rossby in 1946. Rossby Waves are sinuous waves that vary between Zonal and Meridional.
Each creates very different weather patterns including wind direction, temperature fluctuations, precipitation events and intensity. The most extreme in terms of variability occur with Meridional Flow and that is precisely what has occurred in the last few years. Increased Meridional Flow accompanies a cooling trend as the historic record shows and the current weather patterns demonstrate.
Hubert Lamb, among other things, was studying the change in cyclonic patterns as they influenced the UK weather pattern. His work is well documented in his many articles and his amazing two volume set of Climate, Past, Present and Future published in 1977. He understood what was happening, but because of the unholy alliance to pursue a political agenda between the UKMO and the CRU, was ignored. It is time to close the weather office as they, like all government weather offices, have proved are political, unaccountable and scientifically wrong.