What Causes El Niño / La Niña? IPCC Doesn’t Know, But Builds Models and Makes Projections Anyway

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) perpetuates the deception that they examine all causes of climate change. They only examine human causes, which you can’t identify if you don’t know or understand natural causes. They tacitly acknowledged the problem by widening the definition in the 2007 Report, but little changed.

Studying human impact excludes anything outside the terrestrial system. They cynically included the Sun in their list of human forcing mechanisms (Figure 1), but then only studied variations in insolation (electromagnetic radiation) thus excluding other solar and astronomic changes.

Radiative forcing components

Figure 1: Source IPCC AR4

It’s a circular argument developed during the ozone debate. Ozone is created by the UV portion of sunlight. They assumed it was constant, which meant any change in ozone must have a terrestrial cause. Claim everything outside the terrestrial system is constant then climate change must have a terrestrial cause. Imply climate doesn’t change much naturally, and you can argue recent changes are unnatural – that is, caused by humans.

General global wind patterns

Figure 2: General Global Wind Patterns

Wind is the most ignored weather variable in weather and climate research. Increase global wind speed by one kph and it alters critical dynamic mechanisms, including evaporation and transport of energy. There are three large average surface wind patterns few know about: the tropical easterlies (tradewinds), the midlatitude westerlies and the polar easterlies, but variability results in significant weather changes.

Large gaps in knowledge and understanding create unquestioned acceptance of illogical situations. For example, El Niño creates warm water on one side of the Pacific and cool on the other; La Niña is opposite. Yet El Niño supposedly raises global temperatures but La Niña doesn’t. Some argue they are not opposite effects, but the explanations are disturbingly unscientific.

During a significant El Niño, tropical Pacific trade winds relax and warm waters from the Western Equatorial Pacific and from below the surface of the Pacific Warm Pool slosh to the east.

What do “relax” and “slosh” mean?

Wikipedia says,

El Niño/La Niña-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years.

However, it also says,

Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

Oscillation is caused by ocean current reversal. Wind creates currents so it reverses first, but wind is created by pressure differences so it must reverse. What causes that? They apparently don’t know:

Despite this progress, serious systematic errors in both the simulated mean climate and the natural variability persist.

They conclude,

Finally, it remains unclear how changes in the mean climate will ultimately affect ENSO predictability.

But what causes ENSO?

The IPCC doesn’t know, because they generally ignore sun- / climate-related research. Sun-driven correlations or mechanisms have been ignored for a long time. Harry van Loon and Karen Labitzke expressed the problem in their New Scientist article of September 1988. They wrote,

“Serious” meteorologists still prefer to dismiss any claim that there is a noticeable relationship between the activity of the Sun and events on Earth. And yet, to our own surprise, we have found a highly significant correlation between the state of the atmosphere and solar activity.

They try to deflect the intimidation.

Our analyses are nothing more than statistics. We can only be sure that we are right if someone can explain how such a large influence on the atmosphere can be produced by comparatively small changes in the energy output of the Sun during the solar cycle.

Rossby wave patterns

Figure 3: Rossby wave patterns

Labitzke and Landscheidt produced work on sunspots and ENSO relationships, but they’re not even referenced in IPCC reports. Senior IPCC author Kevin Trenberth knew of the work because he was a fellow presenter at a conference with Labitzke and van Loon. El Niño/La Niña are reversals of surface currents related to reversals of the weak upper level tropical easterlies, but what causes upper level flows to reverse?

Westerlies don’t reverse, but shift from Zonal Flow with few low amplitude Rossby Waves to Meridional Flow with more and higher amplitude Waves (Figure 3). Each produces distinctly different weather patterns. Rossby Waves change patterns are periodic, but the cause is unknown?

Most, but especially the IPCC, seek mechanisms of change within the terrestrial system, whether it’s ENSO, the Jet Stream, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multivariate Oscillation (AMO) or other fluctuations. It is more likely the changes are driven externally. There’s a possible mechanism to explain major wind pattern changes like ENSO and the Rossby Waves.

Solar wind compressing magnetosphere

Figure 4: Solar wind compressing magnetosphere

Solar wind is ionized particles streaming from the sun with varying intensity. It hits the magnetosphere causing compression on the upwind side and a large tail downwind (Figure 4). Pressure on one layer will cause pressure on underlying layers right down through the stratosphere to the troposphere. There must be internal adjustments within each layer besides the transmission of energy, which result in horizontal adjustments of gases within the layer.

Variations in solar wind pressure would create a bellows effect on the atmosphere below the tropopause. Weaker equatorial winds would respond by stopping and reversing their flow thus triggering the ENSO and other periodic oscillations. This is facilitated at low latitudes because Coriolis Effect (CE) of the Earth’s rotation is very weak. Jet Stream flow is much stronger and CE is correspondingly stronger at middle latitude. The bellow effect is insufficient to overcome these forces, so the wind reaction is increased sinuosity as it swings between Zonal and Meridional flow.

Using a narrow definition of climate change to achieve a political agenda means the IPCC ignores most major climate mechanisms, especially outside the terrestrial system. Despite this, they build climate models and make definitive projections that are the basis of devastating and completely unnecessary policies.


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2 Responses

  1. January 16, 2012

    […] Read more … Share this:PrintEmailMoreStumbleUponTwitterFacebookDiggRedditLike this:LikeBe the first to like this post. This entry was posted in Climate Change. Bookmark the permalink. ← Model of Titan’s atmosphere suggests faint sunlight enough to drive weather, clouds […]

  2. January 17, 2012

    […] What Causes El Niño / La Niña? IPCC Doesn’t Know, But Builds Models and Makes Projections Anyway from Dr. Tim Ball by Dr. Tim Ball Like this:LikeBe the first to like this post. […]